Population viability analyses (PVA) estimate the ability of species to persist in our rapidly changing world. Creating robust population viability projection models predicting the short-term effects of global change on species with long-life spans and relatively long generation times is difficult. For species living for more than 100 years, PVA timelines may inform conservation action affecting one or fewer generations of a species. In those cases, creative choices in choosing to project into the future the threats rather than the life histories of focal species may better inform conservation action and decision-making. Herein, we discuss completed and on-going projects to collaboratively assess the current and future status of species with varying lifespans using simulated data and comparing the simulations to current cases involving Puerto Rican Boas, Sonoran Desert Tortoises, and Whitebark Pines with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service under the new Species Status Assessment (SSA) framework.
Results/Conclusions
We found that when one generation of a species is equivalent to more than one hundred years, the persistence and vulnerabilities of that species to changing environments is better explored using information related to threats to the species than information related to the species’ demography. Using spatial and biological information in multiple statistical models including cellular automaton and state transition, we decreased uncertainty surrounding the persistence estimates of each of the case study species. We suggest expanding the scope of demographic-based PVA modeling frameworks to incorporate perceived threats. The modeling exercises were one tool to treat uncertainty related to long-lived species persistence with greater confidence.