“The future ain’t what it used to be.” _Yogi Berra
One of the most vulnerable places in the world with respect to climate change is the Florida Keys. The low-lying topography of the island chain coupled with the frequency of tropical cyclones presents challenges for those who manage the many federal and state listed endemic species as well as managers charged with ensuring that the quality of life for the citizens does not suffer. In September 2017, Hurricane Irma roared ashore in the Lower Florida Keys leaving many businesses destroyed and residents homeless. The hurricane also impacted the unique natural habitats and communities of the Florida Keys. The pernicious advance of rising sea levels had already converted some upland habitats to mangroves and Irma added further insult to an already fragile system. The response to the storm was predictable and understandable; local communities focused on recovery of the society. In many instances, natural resource protection was not considered. For example, private lots with natural vegetation were cleared with requirements to obtain permits suspended. Unfortunately, the climate models predict that we will likely see more intense cyclones in the future.
Results/Conclusions
The future is uncertain for the endemic threatened and endangered species of the Florida Keys, especially when one considers the myriad of threats they already encounter. The threats are not unique to Florida; yet, they are exacerbated given the vulnerability of the region. The risks include the effects from climate change (e.g., sea level rise, changes to hydrological patterns, temperature increases), perturbations to natural systems (e.g., invasive species encroachment), and anthropogenic forces (e.g., development, mosquito control spraying, encounters with feral cats). It is incumbent upon natural resource managers to ensure that effective and robust plans are in place for the changes that are inevitable including those from encroaching seas. Recognizing that societies usually prioritize human health and welfare above natural resources, natural resource managers must ensure that they develop plans in concert with those planners and managers who oversee societal needs. For example, corridors must be maintained to ensure the ability of species to migrate to higher elevations. Additionally, other stressors must be controlled and reduced (e.g., addressing feral cats). Finally, natural resource managers must think differently and embrace the uncomfortable reality that conditions are changing and they must manage for change rather than persistence.