Challenges of managing ecosystems for the provision of food, fiber, energy, and water come together at points of human intervention, primarily on land. However, the effects of human interventions on land extend across water, air and other ecosystem services including biodiversity. The objective of this study is to review current modeling and analyses of the “food-energy-water nexus” and examine how results are communicated to stakeholders. These projections are compared to empirical data and analyzed to identify where the greatest opportunities and constraints arise for ecosystem services that must provide for the demands of a growing world population. Our study addresses the following questions: How is arable land used today? How much land will be required to feed the growing demands of a more affluent world in 2050? Where will this land most likely be located? What are the implications for biodiversity and water quality?
Results/Conclusions
We document examples involving forestry and agriculture to illustrate how interactions among food, bioenergy and sustainable resource management depend on contextual conditions, problems and opportunities. A review of state-of-art modeling of land use and productivity finds that simulated results are determined largely by the choice of land classification system, order of allocation, and allocation rules applied. Single-use land classes in current land-use change models are necessarily simplified representations of actual anthropogenic activities and ecological conditions that omit important opportunities to build synergies via multiple-objective, multi-use, resource planning. We identify research and outreach priorities for developing incentives to support improved land management practices that build synergies among food, energy and water. These include better communications from the scientific community and more integrated approaches to production that allow for land sparing as well as improve soil and water management. Preliminary results suggest that increased per capita food demands in 2050 could be met using less than half of the global land area that is currently classified for agricultural use. Recycling nutrients to maximize productivity and flex crops are discussed as examples of opportunities to provide food, fiber and energy while applying management practices that conserves soils and water quality. Engaging stakeholders to identify and assess specific opportunities to advance local priorities is a key component to promote more sustainable development. Stakeholders should be involved in the systematic monitoring and analysis required to support adaptive management and continual improvement.