Extreme weather events (EWEs) are expected to increase in stochasticity, frequency, and intensity as a result of climate change. Documented effects of various EWEs such as droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, floods, and temperature extremes on ecosystems range from shifts in community stable states to species extirpations. Documented effects of EWEs on ecosystems range from shifts in community stable states to species extirpations. To date, little attention has been paid to population resistance to and/or recovery from the damaging effects of EWEs though compensatory mechanisms; thus severely limiting the capacity to predict species responses to future and increasing EWEs. Here, for the first time, we systematically review the variation in species’ responses, resistance to, and recovery from EWEs across weather types, species, and biogeographic regions. Through a literature review and meta-analysis, we tested the prevailing hypothesis that population abundance and probability of persistence will always decrease after an EWE. We calculated the percentage of studies documenting deleterious EWE effects on population persistence and the magnitude of those effects at the species level. We also catalogued the frequency and mechanisms by which population responses compensated for EWE effects, both in short and long-term recovery events.
Results/Conclusions
Across reviewed papers (n=27), populations exhibited large variation in their responses to EWEs. On average, for papers that reported changes in abundance, EWEs reduced population abundance by 8.1% (+ 9.1 SE). Across papers that reported demographic rates, survival (n=12) decreased by 13.7% (+ 6.0 SE) and mortality (n=10) increased by 410% (+ 165.3) after EWEs. Across papers, 89% of reported metrics included some measurement of compensation and 82% reported on demographic recovery to pre-EWE levels. Of these, 57% of tested population responses compensated for the effects of the EWE but only 29% of populations subsequently recovered to pre-EWE abundance or demographic levels. Our review revealed that although EWEs can have large and negative effects on population outcomes, there is evidence to suggest that populations can resist and recover from these events. We discuss variation in responses to each type of EWE and the means by which better population predictions can be made for species of conservation interest in the face of increased climate stochasticity.