As part of its Congressional mandate, the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is required to produce a quadrennial National Climate Assessment (NCA) that integrates and evaluates global change findings and associated scientific uncertainties, analyzes the effects of global change on regions and sectors of the United States, and analyzes human-induced and natural trends in global change.
The fourth installment of the assessment, NCA4, is being released in two volumes. The first, the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR), was released in November 2017. It presents an update on the science of climate change with a focus on the United States. Volume II of NCA4, Climate Change Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States, is expected to be released in late 2018.
NCA4 is part of the sustained assessment process, a pillar of USGCRP’s strategic plan. The sustained assessment process aims, in part, to put USGCRP’s Federal assessment work in the context of both the sub-national and international scientific assessment landscape. This includes the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), which is undertaking its first-ever Global Assessment (due in 2019), and more targeted Regional Assessments, including one focused on the Americas.
Results/Conclusions
In this talk, we will discuss how NCA4 fits into the broader scientific assessment landscape, including related IPBES assessments being undertaken at the global and regional scales. We will also highlight how NCA4 builds on local and regional assessments across the United States. We will discuss the role of the CSSR in informing Vol. II of NCA4, as well as some key findings of this physical science assessment that relate to extreme events and ecosystem resilience. We will provide an overview of the draft NCA4 Volume II, which covers issues such as: Land Cover and Land Use Change; Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity; Human Health; Sectoral Interdependencies, Multiple Stressors, and Complex Systems; and Near-Term Adaptation Needs and Increased Resiliency. Finally, we will briefly describe a suite of tools developed to support USGCRP’s sustained assessment process, including technical inputs, indicators, and USGCRP scenario products, and to serve the broader global change science community.