The impact of climate change on the agricultural system is one of the internationally important issues. In particular, rice farming systems can be directly affected by climate change, and food shortages can arise in Asia when there is no adequate forecast and response. In this study, system dynamics modeling was used to predict the impact of climate change on the rice farming systems, and scenario simulations were conducted to suggest appropriate policies. The rice farming system in Korea was set as a research subject, and the water resources, rice paddy area, soil organic matter, productivity, rice stock quantity and rice production cost were modeled as main system components. Rice farming system dynamics were predicted by 2080 for RCP 4.5, 8.5 climate change scenarios.
Results/Conclusions
Simulation results showed that rice productivity was not significantly affected, but production was continuously decreased due to increased production costs. The main reason for the increase of production cost was the increase of pesticide use due to frequent pest outbreak. Among the three policy scenarios, R & D to improve rice productivity, grant of agricultural subsidies, and expansion of irrigation facilities, R & D alone had a significant impact on maintaining agricultural systems. Overall, rice production in Korea was expected to decline dramatically due to climate change, and appropriate policies were needed for sustainable rice production. Although this study was conducted on rice production in Korea, it will be possible to study other countries or other crops using the developed model structure and approach.