Invasive species pose a major concern for biodiversity conservation around the world. They are responsible for reducing native species populations, altering species interactions and ecosystem structure, functioning, and services, and impacting human economies and health. With global climate change, the spread of many invasive species is predicted to be expedited. One of the world’s most damaging invasive species, kudzu (Pueraria montana), is of growing concern in the southern United States. As a perennial vine, it has the ability to drastically alter ecosystems, blanket forest canopies, cause infrastructure losses and maintenance costs, and threaten agricultural productivity. Kudzu’s aggressive and competitive characteristics, along with future changing climate conditions, may facilitate the species’ invasion into new areas outside of its current niche. Using a climate-based distribution modeling approach, BIOMOD, we will estimate kudzu’s potential distribution in the southcentral United States under future climate scenarios. We will compile presence records of the species through herbaria and online databases, and use current associations between climate (temperature and precipitation) and distribution to project. This approach will enable us to predict kudzu’s future distribution in the next 50-100 years, given projected climate conditions.
Results/Conclusions
Assessment of current and past kudzu records illustrate that this invasive species has expanded northward and westward at a more rapid rate in the last 17 years compared to the preceding period of 1980 to 2000, and that this range expansion is at least partly attributable to climate change. Based on previous literature and projected climate for the region, we hypothesize that kudzu will expand even further northward and westward, will increasingly survive winter months as average and minimum winter temperatures increase, will have higher reproductive viability, and will potentially decrease in infestation in far southern regions. These results contribute valuable information about how climate change will influence the spread and impacts of kudzu in the southcentral Unites States and beyond. Along with information about ecological impacts of kudzu expansion, these results will also provide important incentive for management and control actions to limit kudzu’s spread and impacts.