The success of Gulf Coast restoration efforts hinge on partners sharing a common vision for conservation framed by explicit biological objectives for specific conservation targets. However, explicit objectives that quantify what it means to share a common vision remain undefined. Therefore, this study’s goals were to define (1) biological planning units (BPU) on or adjacent to the Gulf Coast, (2) population objectives for species representative of sustainable habitats in each BPU, and (3) habitat objectives necessary to achieve those population objectives. For goals (1) and (2) we worked with resource managers to map conservation areas and identify federal trust species representative of each habitat. Population objectives were obtained or derived for each species per BPU from existing recovery and regional plans. For goal (3) we identified species lacking habitat objectives and then, for a subset of these species, we conducted expert elicitation and literature surveys to develop Bayesian networks (BN) that predicted species’ abundances at sites across the U.S portion of the Gulf given both local and landscape habitat characteristics. We then derived habitat objectives under alternative environmental and/or restoration scenarios. This talk will focus on results for three bird species, Brown Pelican, Black Skimmer, and Gull-billed Tern.
Results/Conclusions
Managers identified 16 BPUs plus six aquatic extensions into the U.S. interior to meet the needs of migratory aquatic species. They identified 166 plant and animal federal trust species that are representative of sustainable habitats. When coupled with established population objectives, the BNs provided insight into how much habitat is available, how much more is needed, and where conservation or restoration efforts can most efficiently achieve established population objectives. For example, Brown Pelican were unlikely to occur on >95% of 31,577 gulf islands due to intense human disturbance, lack of nesting shrubs, and/or depredation by wild mammals. Thus, restoration scenarios might focus on planting shrubs on relatively small islands that are isolated from the mainland. Gull-billed Tern and Black Skimmer were unlikely to occur on >90% or >68%, respectively, of 163,013 bare-ground sites due to intense human and dog disturbance, depredation by wild mammals and feral cats, and unsuitable substrates or topography. Thus, managers might focus on human and dog restrictions, effective predator management, and increasing site quality. We will present the habitat objectives and discuss the processes that control the distribution and abundance of these species in the context of gulf restoration efforts.