Hurricane Mitch, a Category 5 hurricane that struck Central America in November 1998, was one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes recorded since record-keeping began in 1851, and the second deadliest, causing an estimated 11,000 deaths. Honduras, whose topography and degraded forests make its steep watersheds especially prone to flooding, was devastated, and its economy took nearly a decade to recover. Climate change projections suggest that future hurricanes may be more frequent, intense, and produce higher rainfall rates. We recently conducted an assessment for the U.S. Agency for International Development in southern Honduras in order to: (1) understand the relationship between forest and biodiversity conservation and the vulnerability and resilience of hydrological ecosystem services in a changing climate; and (2) develop a quantitative index of the ecohydrological vulnerability of a watershed in order to order to establish priorities for conservation or restoration actions that would increase resilience. We used satellite images of land cover to calculate an ecohydrological vulnerability index; examined the potential effects of climate change on vulnerability and ecosystem services; developed a landscape-scale conservation and restoration vision for priority watersheds; and assessed potential for funding for forest conservation/restoration through “payments for ecosystem services” mechanisms.
Results/Conclusions
Vulnerability to flooding and loss of ecohydrological services in a watershed depends on the percentage of forest cover and other natural vegetation remaining in upstream catchment areas. Upland forests enhance infiltration and reduce surface runoff, thereby stabilizing stream flows and recharging aquifers. Protected areas in upper watersheds anchor such ecohydrological services and their resilience while also conserving biodiversity. Climate predictions for Honduras suggest a very significant eco‐climatic shift that would decrease the area suitable for cooler and wetter types of upland forest ecosystems by almost 50 percent. To compensate for such a climate-driven shift, ecological restoration of forest cover in areas now used for marginal, subsistence agriculture on inappropriately-steep slopes will be required. Techniques for such restoration are relatively well developed, but social and economic barriers often prevent implementation. Compensation mechanisms to finance conservation and restoration activities need to involve all potentially‐affected stakeholders, from commercial agro‐industries and municipalities to small‐scale subsistence farming communities. Maintaining and enhancing the resilience of social-ecological systems in Honduras in the face of a changing climate will require landscape-scale forest protection and restoration.