Developing Goldilocks models to understand ecological responses to extreme events: Fire and trees in Yellowstone National Park

Projected changes in extreme climate conditions and wildfires cast doubt on the ability of historically dominant coniferous forests to persist, suggest the possibility that deciduous trees could expand, and raise the possibility of transitions to non-forest. We built a parsimonious model that generates a wide range of forest compositions across varied fire regimes. Using empirically estimated demographic parameters for trees with different adaptations to fire, we estimated ranges of fire frequency and size that favored different strategies. Our model can be applied generally to understand how forest ecosystems may respond to more frequent extreme events.