Mongolia has been experiencing one of the strongest warming signals on Earth. Climate change is also expected to increase the frequency and intensity of severe winter weather events or dzud, which create significant challenges for Mongolian herders, who account for about 30% of the country’s population. Pastoralists observe climate and rangeland changes and their impacts at finer spatial and temporal resolutions than many instruments, offering potential additional information to complement scientific measurements. Pastoralists’ traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) may also be an important source of adaptive capacity. Here, we first examine patterns of climate change and rangeland production over 20 years in three ecological zones of Mongolia, based on meteorological records, remote sensing and herder observations. Then we explore herders’ perceptions of how changes in climate and rangeland conditions are affecting their lives and livelihoods and describe measures they are taking to adapt to these changes, drawing from semi-structured interviews with 60 herders across three ecological zones.
Results/Conclusions
Both instrument records and herder observations show that summers are getting hotter and drier, winters colder, and rangeland production is declining, especially in the steppe zone. Instrument records and herder observations were most consistently aligned for total annual rainfall and production. Most herders interviewed indicate that livestock quality has declined due to changes in climate and pastures, causing negative impacts on their lives and livelihoods. Herders with poor quality livestock produce poor quality products, thus earn less, and are more vulnerable to natural disasters, lose more livestock in dzud. However, herders emphasized that adapting to the new environment is inevitable. Herders are aware of the need to increase or further improve upon their current adaptive strategies, such as livestock mobility, forage and hay storage, diversification, and improved livestock quality. Also, herders indicated that better preparation for winter and dzud by learning and revitalizing local ecological knowledge and building closer and more appropriate relationships with the environment are essential to adapting to this changing environment.