Global demand for animal protein is projected to grow dramatically by the middle of this century due to both growth in the number of people and growth in wealth in many developing countries. Meeting this demand will have dramatic environmental impacts in terms of land use, greenhouse gas emissions, water demand, and a variety of other issues. Projections based upon land based meat production are dire, which raises the question of the potential roles of the ocean. Could fisheries and aquaculture provide a more planet friendly path to meeting this growth in demand? If so, can ecological and economic models combined with life cycle assessments provide strategic planning tools to grow the production while minimizing impacts on ocean ecosystems and alternative ocean uses? In addition, can proactive spatial planning create options that are adaptive to looming climate change?
Results/Conclusions
Fixing global fisheries provides the lowest impact source of new animal protein. Indeed, there are net environmental benefits from this increased source of food. The challenge, however, is that fixing every fishery on the planet to yield its maximum sustainable production will only meet just a few percent of the projected growth in demand. Aquaculture has the potential for a much larger impact. Life cycle assessments suggest that it could produce animal protein with far lower environmental costs than any option on land. Since a minute fraction of the ocean is currently used for aquaculture, the opportunity for well planned growth could significantly reduce the conflicts with ecosystems and other uses. We highlight how ecological models of species interactions coupled with ocean dynamics can provide spatial plans for lower impact growth. We also assess the global potential for production based upon these analyses both today and in the face of a shifting climate. If well planned, a very small fraction of the ocean devoted to food production could produce supplies to meet the projected growth in demand with far lower impacts than any options on land.