The biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationship is a key theory for understanding how biodiversity affects the functioning of ecosystems. The effects of global warming specifically on the BEF relationship have received, to our knowledge, no attention. This question still needs to be properly addressed, as it is essential to understand if diversity alone will still be sufficient for maintaining ecosystem functioning, even under the predicted increase in temperature mean and variation. In this study, we developed a BEF theory based on mechanistic population dynamic models that allows predictions to be made about the effects of global warming on the BEF relationship.
Results/Conclusions
The model predicts that temperature increase will intensify competition and consequently the BEF relationship will flatten or even become negative. We conducted a laboratory experiment with natural microbial microcosms and the results were in agreement with the predictions of our model. The empirical observations also revealed that an increase of both temperature average and variation had a more intense effect than an increase of temperature average alone. Our results indicate that, under climate change, high diversity may not guarantee high ecosystem functioning.