Land-use and climate change are expected to interact as decision-makers adapt to both climatic and ecological effects, as well as new policies aimed at mitigating damages. In private forests, landowners are expected to alter the timing and intensity of harvests, and/or change the species of trees they plant, which in turn may affect native, forest-dependent wildlife. Here we ask: what are the implications of projected climate change and carbon price scenarios for private forest management and associated wildlife? To answer this question, we take an integrated ecological-economic approach using data from the USFS FIA Program, specifically 6,840 forest plots in Washington, Oregon, and California sampled during 2001-2014. We associate observed forest management decisions with market prices, biophysical characteristics, and climatic variables. The resulting econometric model is used to simulate changes on private forest lands under different climate change and carbon price scenarios through 2100. We then consider 55 terrestrial vertebrates on state conservation lists that are forest habitat specialists. We use species ranges and USGS GAP distribution models, habitat associations at the ecological system level, and projections from the econometric model for private forests to calculate projected habitat changes for each species.
Results/Conclusions
The estimated discrete-choice econometric model is used as the basis for a dynamic simulation of projected forest management decisions by private landowners under both climate change and carbon price scenarios. We find that landowners shift out of their current dominant tree species choice of Douglas-fir to species more suitable for the future climate, notably hardwood and ponderosa pine. For example, under climate change scenarios, replanting Douglas-fir shifts from ~50% of plots in Washington and Oregon to <20% by 2090 (and from ~30% to <15% in California). A carbon price policy would encourage such shifting away from planting Douglas-fir even more (to <10% of replantings in all 3 states). Wildlife species that are more dependent on coniferous forests (including Douglas-fir, Fir/Spruce, and Hemlock/Sitka Spruce forest types) are projected to lose up to 50% of currently suitable habitat on private lands, and up to 30% of habitat overall (assuming forests on public lands are not converted to other land uses). The effect of a carbon price on landscape change could therefore require additional policy interventions, in order to counteract the effect of private forest management decisions on wildlife that depend on coniferous forests.