Exponential growth of human numbers and even faster growth in economic activity now disrupt ecosystems on every continent and in every ocean. Literal and figurative fires burn at all latitudes. Propaganda eclipses science in several key public policy debates including biodiversity losses, climate change and limits to growth. To understand, predict and influence complex systems, in order to improve probabilities of acceptable outcomes, scientists must become more pluralist, pragmatic and activist. (Sandra Mitchell, 2009, David Orrell 2007). Unless scientists can win political battles against strong opposition, science becomes a nullity and outcomes deteriorate. The abortion controversy offers a particularly sharp example of the failure of reductionist philosophy of science to win or to even engage in public policy debates. Over the past half-century, opposition to abortion has been used as a key lever whereby ecologically illiterate political factions gained power (Patricia Miller, 2015). This paper reviews arguments for and against abortion and alternative conceptions of abortion from scientific and religious/political perspectives.
Results/Conclusions
Abortion is significant in human population dynamics and hence earth system dynamics. Annual global population growth is currently 86 million and rising (UN Population Division). With 56 million abortions per year and half of pregnancies unintended, human population growth depends significantly on access to abortion (Guttmacher Institute). With global average fertility decline stalling near 2.4 children/woman (replacement fertility 2.1) persistent average fertility above 5 in some countries, and significant failure rates of most contraceptive methods, increased access to abortion could significantly help get population stabilized. Jeffrey Sachs (2008) estimated that legal and accessible abortion can reduce fertility rates by half a child per woman—the current global average difference between continued explosive growth and population stability. Fertility rates and age structures in high fertility cultures lead to projections that current 7.5 billion global population will grow to 10 billion by midcentury. Highly contingent and uncertain projections rise to 26 billion by 2100 with constant fertility assumptions (UN 2015 Revision). This paper repositions abortion as a key to slowing ecological and economic harms from too many people, not enough planet. A multidisciplinary argument pointing out factual errors and contradictions in abortion opponent’s views might shift public opinion. Abortion debates will be a key battleground in preventing ecosystem damage and represent the crux of the battle between rational science and "faith based" accounts of "alternative facts." Does life begin at conception or was it 4.1 billion years ago?