Climatic change is the most challenging problem in the near future. As such, the fauna and flora of Madagascar is particularly exposed to global warming considering the high endemic rates of particularly rich groups. In the frame of several surveys aiming to describe the biological richness of the entomofauna of Madagascar, we wanted to predict how species would react to climatic change. We modelled species distribution of five groups of insects (namely Coleoptera Scarabaeidae Epilissus morio and E. splendidus, Hemiptera Cercopidae Amberana sp., Heteroptera Tingidae Paracopuim fenestellatum, and Heteroptera Reduviidae Distirocadersp. and). Species distributions are projected in the future (for 2050 and 2080) considering the two extreme RCP scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) and three different climatic models to evaluate the tendencies with global warming, using maximum entropy method and Bioclim data.
Results/Conclusions
Modeled areas at 50% suitable range from 6.13% for Amberana sp. and Paracopium fenestellatum to 10.36% for Epilissus morio. The predictions of area suitability differ for each group, depending on the climate model and the RCP scenario. They range from a 50% suitable area almost disappearing to a 50% suitable area increasing, including shifts of suitable areas. Amberana sp. will see its suitable area almost disappearing. Suitable area of Epilissus morio will remain almost the same (10,36% currently to 16.89% in 2080 under the RCP 8.5), but might move West. Suitable areas of Distirogaster sp., Epilissus splendidus, and Paracopium fenestellatum will increase, but show different distributions (from 6.13% currently to 45.62% in 2080 under the RCP 8.5 for Paracopium fenetellatum). The bioclimatic variables influencing these projections are different considering the group. However most of the projections involve climatic changes on the West coast of Madagascar. These preliminary results are discussed regarding the ecology of the groups, as they have different trophic relationships and different habitat preferences. These first results concern non-invasive and endemic species. However, they should call the attention of decision-makers in conservation and management of natural areas about species loss and pest development.