Sink to source to back again: Temporal dynamics of habitat quality for disturbance dependent species

For some, fire causes short-term harm (sink) for longer-term gain (source) and then habitat degrades again. The best strategy, biologically, is not always cost effective. Management of rare species in early successional systems requires knowledge of what is “good enough” for persistence.  We use Fender’s blue butterfly in Oregon’s Willamette Valley as a model system. Given that fire kills diapausing larvae, but increases fecundity and subsequent larval survivorship, we contrast the simple strategy – burn a full site and rely on recolonization from neighbors – vs more intensive strategies - subdivide and burn a fraction of a site each year.