OOS 24-8
Utilization of projected climate data in conservation planning decision support models

Wednesday, August 13, 2014: 10:30 AM
306, Sacramento Convention Center
Tim Sheehan, Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, OR
Mike O. A. Gough, Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, OR
John Abatzoglou, 2Management of Complex Systems, University of California, Merced, CA
Ken Ferschweiler, Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, OR
Dominique Bachelet, Conservation Biology Institute, Corvallis, OR
Background/Question/Methods

We used climate projections from 20 CMIP5 climate models under the "business-as-usual" emission scenario described as Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, to drive a dynamic vegetation model and look at the range of ecosystem responses to climate change in the western US. The MC2 vegetation model projected changes in vegetation distribution, fire occurrence and severity, ecosystem productivity, and water use. We combined climate and impacts data in a series of decision support models using the Environmental Evaluation Modeling System (EEMS), a hierarchical, fuzzy logic-based decision support framework designed to work with both spatial and non-spatial data in a variety of formats, to answer a series of management questions on ecosystem vulnerability.

Results/Conclusions

Results helped identify areas most likely to be stressed by direct and/or indirect effects of climate change and prioritize management actions that can address either adaptation (e.g. importing new genotypes) or mitigation (e.g. optimizing carbon sequestration). The usefulness of this approach is illustrated by presenting results from a workshop with Federal agencies in the PNW as well as contributions to mandated regional assessments for the various Landscape Conservation Cooperatives.