Information on the effects of management activities such as fuel reduction treatments and of processes such as vegetation growth and disturbance on fire hazard can help land managers prioritize treatments across a landscape to best meet management goals. State and transition models (STMs), such as the Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool (VDDT), allow landscape-scale simulations that incorporate effects of succession, management, and disturbance on vegetation composition and structure. STMs have been used for many different types of landscape-scale assessments. However, STMs such as VDDT do not currently assess fuels and fire hazard for different vegetation states. We integrated VDDT with a software application called the Fuel Characteristic Classification System (FCCS) to enable assessment of fuel properties and fire hazard with succession, disturbance, and management across landscapes over time. We created FCCS fuelbeds from inventory plots for each vegetation state in VDDT models covering forested ecosystems in Oregon and Washington and analyzed their potential fire behavior. For a focus area in the Washington East Cascades, we analyzed potential future fire hazard under “fire suppression only” versus “restoration” scenarios.
Results/Conclusions
We found that available fuel potential was not reduced across the landscape under the restoration scenario compared to the fire suppression scenario. Crown fire potential, however, was reduced under the restoration scenario; area of high crown fire potential was reduced by 12%. In addition, the changes in crown fire potential differed by forest types present on the landscape. Weak differing patterns in surface fire potential exist, but were obscured by high variation in surface fuel characteristics within vegetation states. This analysis will help land managers prioritize areas for fuel treatments by considering desired fuel properties and fire hazard within changing landscapes.