Methods for understanding land-use change dynamics and improving assessment of sustainable service provision: Models, science and causal analysis

Background/Question/Methods: How can we scientifically assess options for more sustainable ecosystem management?  Sustainability assessment is challenging in part because it requires coordinated efforts across various disciplines that speak different languages, have disparate goals, and use different theoretical approaches. Tools available to support analytical assessment of the sustainability of alternative land management policies and practices are equally varied and include: system models, decision-support tools, pathway analysis, expert consultations, sensitivity analysis, net-benefit analysis, multivariate statistics, cost-benefit analysis, multi-metric optimization and risk assessment. However, results from any of these tools are only as valid and reliable as underlying data and assumptions. This presentation reviews the results from new economic analyses and empirical studies at ORNL suggesting that key assumptions and data sets used in assessments of land-use change merit revision and more transparent disclosure in communications. 

Results/Conclusions: Results indicate that common assumptions about land cover trends (including disturbance and natural variability), ownership, land use history, prevailing dynamics of change, and the representation of relationships between economic sectors are often inadequately documented and inconsistent with empirical evidence. Also, the distinctions between drivers of initial land-use change at local scales and factors that influence subsequent management decisions are often ignored. Examples illustrate the need for more careful testing and validation of model simulation results. Results highlight specific knowledge gaps and recommendations are offered to improve the scientific basis, consistency and comparability of sustainability assessments (e.g. clear assumptions that build from empirical understanding, multi-disciplinary analysis, and reference data sets). Despite current uncertainties surrounding land-use change modeling, areas of consensus are identified for practices that can measurably improve sustainability relative to business-as-usual. The results also illustrate the costs and complexities of demonstrating “sustainability” of land-based production systems. Policy incentives are more likely to achieve desired results if goals are clearly defined, measurable, and complemented by systematic monitoring, and if benefits are perceived to outweigh costs.