95th ESA Annual Meeting (August 1 -- 6, 2010)

OOS 13 - Forecasting Ecosystem Responses to Elevated CO2: Confronting Models with Long-Term CO2 Enrichment Experiment

Tuesday, August 3, 2010: 8:00 AM-11:30 AM
315-316, David L Lawrence Convention Center
Michael Dietze
Richard J. Norby
Richard J. Norby
This session focuses on efforts to improve our understanding of how global vegetation will respond to changes in atmospheric CO2. Specifically, we are looking at efforts to benchmark process-based models against long-term experimental data from the Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiments. The talks in this session highlight the improvements made in these models as a result of integration with field experiments as well as the novel insights the models can provide about the results from these experiments. The goals of this session are directly in line with this year's theme for ESA which focuses on global warming as a challenge for the future. The models presented in this session are actively being used to forecast how vegetation will respond to climate change at regional to global scales, including some that can be linked to GCMs and are part of the IPCC reports. The IPCC reports have demonstrated substantial uncertainty in the feedbacks between ecosystems and the atmosphere that determine the long-term trajectory of atmospheric CO2 and global temperature. These models have often made simplifying assumptions about CO2 fertilization effects that are consistent with elevated CO2 research but until now the models had not been challenged to capture the full-range of data from FACE experiments. These tests are particularly important given the growing recognition of the importance of feedbacks such as progressive nitrogen limitation. The core of this session will present results from a NCEAS-sponsored model-data intercomparison project to test a dozen models at two forest FACE sites. These talks will focus on the connections to different biogeochemical cycles (Oren, Parton, Thorton) and the different temporal scales (Kicklighter). We will also highlight the techniques used to bring models and data together (Luo). Additional talks in the session will expand the domain considered to other biomes (Ogle, Twain) and larger spatial scales(Zaehle, Jain, Prentice). The scope of our session is not limited to modelers but aims to highlight what the modeling and field research communities can learn from each other and to clarify what types of processes need to be better understood, and what measurements are currently lacking but are needed in order to improve our ability to predict changes in the global carbon cycle.
8:00 AM
How well are we modeling forest responses to elevated CO2? Results of the FACE/model inter-comparison project
Michael Dietze, Boston University; Yiqi Luo, University of Oklahoma; Ram Oren, Duke University; I. Colin Prentice, Imperial College; Paul J. Hanson, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Richard J. Norby, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
8:20 AM
Effects of elevated CO2 on forest hydrological budget
Ram Oren, Duke University; Michael C. Dietze, University of Illinois; Thomas Hickler, Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F); I. Colin Prentice, Imperial College; Sönke Zaehle, Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
8:40 AM
Interactive impacts of CO2 and nutrients on forest production
William Parton, Colorado State University; Nceas Modelling Group, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis
9:00 AM
Temporal dynamics of root growth under long-term exposure to elevated CO2 in the Mojave Desert
Derek L. Sonderegger, Northern Arizona Univeristy; Kiona Ogle, Arizona State University; Robert S. Nowak, University of Nevada Reno; Scot Ferguson, University of Nevada Reno
9:20 AM
Simulating the response of soybean to elevated CO2 across the Midwest United States: Effects on the surface energy and water budgets
Tracy E. Twine, University of Minnesota; Andrew D. B. Leakey, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign; Jarod J. Bryant, University of Minnesota; Katie Richter, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
9:40 AM
9:50 AM
Inversion of coupled carbon-nitrogen model parameters against multiple datasets using Markov chain Monte Carlo methodology
Yuanhe Yang, Department of Botany and Microbiology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK; Xuhui Zhou, Fudan University; Yiqi Luo, University of Oklahoma
10:10 AM
CANCELLED - An integrated modeling framework for the assessment of multiple global changes on terrestrial productivity
Atul Jain, University of Illinois; Xiaojuan Yang, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Miaoling Liang, China Meteorological Administration; Rahul Barman, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
10:30 AM
Using FACE observations to constrain regional to global responses to elevated CO2
Sönke Zaehle, Max-Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry
10:50 AM
The role of CO2 feedbacks in climate change
I. Colin Prentice, Imperial College
11:10 AM
Leaf and nitrogen distribution in sweetgum canopies after 12 years of CO2 enrichment
Richard J. Norby, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Jeffrey M. Warren, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Colleen Iversen, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Joanne Childs, Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Cassandra M. Bruno, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
See more of: Organized Oral Session