Climate change presents a major challenge to natural resource managers both because of the magnitude of potential effects of climate change on ecosystem structure, process, and function, and because of the uncertainty associated with those potential ecological effects. Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We initiated a climate change adaptation case study at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park to determine how to adapt management of federal lands on the Olympic Peninsula to climate change. As a part of the case study process, we conducted a vulnerability assessment that involved a review of available climate model projections to determine likely levels of exposure to climate change on the Olympic Peninsula, and a review of relevant literature and available effects model projections to identify likely climate change sensitivities in each of four focus areas on the Olympic Peninsula, including hydrology and roads, fish, vegetation, and wildlife. We also identified management constraints at the forest and park to evaluate some aspects of institutional capacity to implement adaptive actions. The vulnerability assessment process set the stage for development of adaptation options through scientist-manager workshops.
Results/Conclusions
The case study process produced concrete adaptation options for Olympic National Forest and Park and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change. A key finding of the assessment was that the current general management at the forest and park, with restoration as a primary goal, is consistent with managing for resilience to prepare ecosystems for a changing climate. However, the effort highlighted some potential issues related to climate change that challenge current precepts and management guidelines, and helped to identify new potential actions, and actions that could be increased and reprioritized. For example, the case study process identified numerous ways to maintain ecosystem function and biodiversity, and increase resilience to climate change. However, the looming questions of when to consider assisted migration or when and how to redefine exotic species remain for discussion. Although questions remain, the case study process was an essential first step for Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park in preparing for climate change. The process used and ideas produced can be used to help other natural resource managers in adapting to climate change.