Spatial forest landscape simulation with LANDIS-II were conducted as preliminary work to answer questions of forest type and species change under future climate scenarios, and including natural and management disturbance on the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest in northern Wisconsin.
Results/Conclusions
Spatial simulations show strong and complex interactions of climate change and management. Harvesting remains the dominant driver for over 40 years, with climate change then rapidly also showing strong effects. Depending on harvesting technique, forest type and age, management may either inhibit movement of new tree species into the landscape from the south or accelerate them. Because of the rate of project warming, tree species that will have their optimal climate niche in northern Wisconsin (southern oaks and hickories) will be delayed in arriving on the landscape because of land use and fragmentation in central and southern Wisconsin. At the some time, northern species such as spruce, fir, red and jack pine, and paper birch will decline and may be eliminated. The result may be a drop in landscape forest biomass on the national forest and surrounding area. In follow-up work, we are simulating larger surround regions and at higher spatial resolution to expand on and verify these trends.