Climate change and the zoonotic interface

A number of recent reviews have been in broad agreement that a substantial majority of emerging infectious diseases in humans have their origins in wildlife reservoirs, i.e. they are zoonotic. Such zoonoses, in essence, are simply examples of host-host-pathogen interactions, and our understanding of the dynamics of these is improving significantly. It is therefore timely to use that framework to explore the possible (and likely) effects of climate change on the zoonotic interface. The most potent driving forces in host-host-pathogen interactions are the levels of, and patterns in, host abundance and the transmission coefficients within and between species. Plausible effects of various climate change scenarios on these, and hence on dynamics overall, will be elaborated, first using general models, and then by reference to a series of specific examples.